Traffic Man Hours and the Economy – Report
By Musa D. Sunday and Adebayo A. Wuraola
Introduction
Other
than supporting research from unlimited studies (The Economist, 2018; Economics
Online, n.d.; Melissa et al., 2018; etc), it is well known that traffic
congestion exists, particularly in major cities around the world. Time spent in
traffic is frustrating and has multiple negative implications for drivers’ physical
and mental health, for businesses and possibly for the economy. The Economist
(2018) states that congestion inflicts high economic costs, with cities like
New York cost 34 billion dollars as a result of road congestion in 2017. While Economics
Online (n.d.) suggests that several other factors, in combination with time
lost in road congestion, can be linked to damaging economies. Factors including
fuel costs, health costs from treating stress, business costs, poor functioning
of emergency services, etc. From another perspective, congested roads may also
be a symbol of economic growth due to increasing income levels and employment
rate (Takyi et al., 2013). However, the focus of this study is solely on the
cost of manhours lost in traffic.
The
aim of this study is to establish a link between only the hours spent in
traffic to losses in the economy. The target group is Nigeria, particularly the
major cities like Lagos.
Concept
The
concept behind this study is that there is a link between work hours lost in
traffic and the economy, as illustrated below.
Figure 1: Sample conceptual framework for
congestion (Takyi et al., 2013)
Methodology
A survey was carried out in January 2020 on working Nigerians.
This survey aimed to determine the relationship between the manhours spent in
traffic and the economy. Overall, there were 108 responses to the survey, and
the results are analysed below.
The survey was created as an online questionnaire,
using Microsoft Forms, and was distributed to a diverse range of Nigerians via
a WhatsApp platform. This method of distribution was used because WhatsApp is a
popular means of communication in Nigeria, and it is a faster and more direct
method of reaching participants.
The questionnaire was introduced with a summary and purpose
of the survey. Participants were informed of the average length of the
questionnaire and that they were not obliged to fill it. They were also
reassured that their responses were confidential and that no information that
could personally identify them would be collected.
A link
to the survey results can be found here: https://forms.office.com/Pages/AnalysisPage.aspx?id=iKVYt2B4yEKbha3eSDMkV2e8QfSRWldDnS9vY3cLxZxUOTVKUEVXU0JVNThJRlIxUFlGV0RNNVlKWi4u&AnalyzerToken=rhyDfuJGMtdGjwR8EVI12SCr5CXNk7na
The results were also pooled into an Excel sheet,
which was used to analyse the data.
Results
General
Information
Of the 108 respondents, 62 (57%) were male, 44 (41%) were
female, and two (2%) preferred not to disclose their gender.
Figure 2: Gender
A look at the age ranges of all the respondents shows
that majority of Nigerians who commute to work daily fall within the ages of 16
to 60, which is in line with the retirement age in Nigeria.
Table 1: Age range
|
Age
range |
Number
of respondents |
|
16–30 |
13 (12%) |
|
31–45 |
82(76%) |
|
46–60 |
13 (12%) |
|
61–75 |
0 |
|
Other |
0 |
As for work location in Nigeria, 31 (29%) respondents
work on the Lagos mainland, 45 (42%) work on the Lagos island, six (6%) work in
Port Harcourt, eight (7%) work in Abuja, and the other 18 (17%) respondents
work in other cities in different states, including Abeokuta, Ota, Minna, Bini
river, Ibadan, Anambra, Kaduna, Akure, Osun, Ogbomoso, and Delta; with the majority
of the respondents (23) earning between 100 and 200 thousand naira monthly.
Transportation
means and time spent in traffic
The survey went on to find out about the respondents’
means of transportation and how long it usually takes to get to work and back
home.
Majority of the respondents (75, 69%) use a car as a
means of transport to work.
Figure 3: Means of transport
Moreover, an analysis of these 75 people shows that 50
(about 67%) of them work in Lagos. Other respondents across the country use public
buses, motorcycles, boat, staff bus, and one respondent stated that they also
use aircraft to get to work.
Without accounting for the distance between their
homes and their places of work, or what time they left home/workplace, it was
found that majority of them (35, 32%) spend between 0–30 minutes to get to work
and back home. Then, another 32 (30%) of them spend between 31 minutes–1 hour
to get to work and back home. It is interesting to note that for almost all the
respondents, the time they should ideally spend on the roads for each journey ranged
from 15 minutes to as high as 45 minutes or 1 hour less than the time they
actually spend on the roads. For a couple of respondents who work on the Lagos island
and use public transport, the difference in their actual commute time and what
it should ideally be was as much as almost 2 hours. It can be assumed that
these ones live somewhere on Lagos mainland. On average, it can be assumed that
about 1 hour is wasted on the roads, both in the morning and evening, making an
average total of 2 hours.
Figure 4: Time spent on roads in the morning
(same as evening)
Figure 5: Ideal time they should spend on
roads (same as evening)
Also, about 87% of the respondents spend between 8 and
9 hours at work each day.
Figure 6: Hours spent at work each day
When asked how often they were late to work or
appointments because of traffic, on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being ‘Never’ and
5 being ‘Always’, the following was discovered:
Figure 7: Being late
While people were not always late, on average, they quite
often got late as a result of traffic.
Using this data sample as a representation of the
country, it is quite clear that most workers use cars as a means of transport,
possibly including those sharing rides. This automatically explains the large number
of vehicles on the roads, which is a contribution to the traffic faced,
especially in Lagos.
Now, most of the respondents spend 8 hours at work
every day. Traffic is usually a frustrating process of cars moving slowly and
repeatedly, causing unnecessary adverse effects on the body and mental health. For
a respondent who spends 2 hours on the road in the morning and 2 hours in the
evening, that is already 4 hours of stress. By the time they get to work, they
are probably already late, stressed and angry (Melissa et al., 2018). Assuming
that it takes about 20 or 30 minutes to get settled in at work, this amounts to
about 4 hours 30 minutes of unproductive time each day.
There are 24 hours in a day. Eight hours spent at work
plus 4 hours 30 minutes of unproductive time make approximately 13 hours. It is
not known what workers do in the rest of their non-work time, but it is safe to
assume that what they do outside work and during work affects their sleep time
significantly. The recommended sleep time for an adult is at least 7–9 hours
(SleepFoundation.org, 2015). Research has shown repeatedly that the typical
Lagosian does not get enough sleep (Tribune Online, 2019). There is also the
case of exposure to air pollution while sitting for long hours in traffic
(Melissa et al., 2018). This also has a negative impact on the health of
workers.
Now, this continues over a long period, and the
employee is fatigued and stressed. There is no morale to work to full
efficiency because they are always tired. Occasionally, costly mistakes are
made too. How does this relate to the economy?
For one employee, this may not matter. However, for a considerable
percentage of each organisation’s employee, this is a big deal. Productivity
may drop and keep dropping (Melissa et al., 2018). This may affect projects,
revenues and timescales, to mention a few. And one way or another, its effect
might be felt in the country’s economy.
Inference
Suppose an inference on what is lost yearly due to
lost time in traffic in Nigeria could be made based on the analysis above, then
an estimate of losses to the economy could be determined using the 108
respondents as a representation of the whole country.
· Manhours lost: On average, the respondents lose 2
hours in traffic daily. This amounts to about 502 hours lost per year (at 251
working days in a year).
· Daily cost lost: Ignoring the variance in the wages
of the respondents and focusing on the minimum wage, the cost of the hours lost
in traffic can be determined. The minimum wage in Nigeria is =N=30,000 per month
(Trading Economics, 2020). On average, each respondent works 8 hours per day,
and the average number of weekdays in a month is approximately 22 days. Based
on 22 weekdays per month, the minimum wage is about 57 naira per hour. From
this, it can be determined that on average, each respondent loses about 114
naira (2 hours x =N=57) daily from time spent in traffic.
· Yearly cost lost: If there are 251 working days (accounts
for standard public holidays) in a year in Nigeria, then each respondent loses about
=N=28,614 (=N=114 x 251 working days OR 502 working hours x =N=57) yearly on
average.
· The bigger picture: As at 2020, the workforce in
Nigeria represents about 69.5 million people (Trading Economics, 2020). By
projecting the respondents unto the Nigerian workforce, it can be determined
that approximately =N=1.9 trillion (1,988,673,000,000) is lost annually by
Nigerians based on the minimum wage as a result of the average time lost in
traffic (69.5 million x =N=28,614 lost per person).
Lagos
State – The hotspot
Assuming the
labour cost for one day (10 hours’ work approximately) is set at =N=3,000.00, 1
hour would cost =N=300.00. An average of 4 hours 30 minutes of unproductive
work spent in traffic daily would amount to =N=1,350.00 for one person per day.
In a year of 300 days of work, this comes to the sum of =N=405,000.00 in a year
for one person.
The
National Manpower Stock and Employment Generation Survey by National Bureau of
Statistics in 2010 put the labour force of Lagos State at 3,800,531 (this would
have increased considerably given the time interval between when the survey was
published and when this research was conducted). Consequently, the amount Lagos
State may be losing due to traffic would be about =N=1,539,215,055,000.00 in
one year.
Several
factors contribute to the traffic situation across the nation. Most significant
of these include bad road network, erratic and reckless behaviour of drivers,
poor vehicle maintenance, which leads to breakdowns, and availability of toll
gates and/or security check points.
Limitations and conclusion
While this research has aimed to cover a cross-section
of commute life across the country, it still has several limitations:
· More respondents are needed if the whole of Nigeria is to be studied.
· It does not account for bad roads or accidents, which is a predominant
factor for congestion, especially in Lagos.
· It is general knowledge that several Lagos commuters tend to leave home
earlier in the mornings to avoid the dense traffic. This is also not considered
in this research.
· The home locations of the respondents are also not accounted for, and
this is also a significant contributor to the time it takes to get to work and
back.
· Specific sectors, such as delivery, manufacturing, supply chain, retail and
emergency services, are highly dependent on logistics and traffic flow (Takyi et al., 2013). Businesses in this sector would obviously be more impacted by losses
as a result of late delivery of goods and services due to traffic congestion.
This is not accounted for.
· Other than time lost in traffic, time lost as a result of low
productivity caused by traffic has not been covered in this study.
In general, it is true that a considerable amount of
time is spent on roads in frustrating traffic. This contributes to late start
times at work and meetings, including the stress of workers, which could be a source
of low morale at work. This, in turn, influences productivity and may have an
impact on organisations’ contribution to the economy.
It should be noted that while this data is an accurate
theoretical representation of the country, it is still mostly speculative. More
research and other factors need to be considered to determine an actual
relationship between hours spent in traffic and its impact on the economy.
Also, since Lagos is a hotspot for most commuting
workers in the country, it might be beneficial to focus future in-depth
research in this metropolitan city.
References
Economics Online (n.d.) Road congestion
[Online]. Available at https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Market_failures/Road_congestion.html (Accessed 01 May 2020).
The Economist (2018) The hidden cost of congestion
[Online]. Available at https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/28/the-hidden-cost-of-congestion (Accessed 01 May 2020).
Melissa B., Dangaia S. and Daniel P. (2018) Bicycling
for Transportation, Oxford, Elsevier.
SleepFoundation.org (2015) National Sleep
Foundation Recommends New Sleep Times [Online]. Available at https://www.sleepfoundation.org/press-release/national-sleep-foundation-recommends-new-sleep-times (Accessed 01 May 2020).
National Bureau of Statistics (2010) National
Manpower Stock and Employment Generation Survey – Household and Micro
Enterprise (Informal Sector), National Bureau of Statistics.
Takyi, H., Kofi, P. and Anin, K. E. (2013) ‘An
Assessment of Traffic Congestion and Its Effect on Productivity in Urban
Ghana’, International Journal of Business and Social Science, vol. 4,
no. 3, pp. 225–234.
Trading Economics (2020) Nigeria National Minimum
Wage [Online]. Available at https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/minimum-wages (Accessed 01 May 2020).
Tribune Online (2019) In A City That Doesn’t Sleep,
Many Are Running Mental [Online]. Available at https://tribuneonlineng.com/in-a-city-that-doesnt-sleep-many-are-running-mental/ (Accessed 01 May 2020).
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